Key findings
- Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers score 3.0/10 on AI exposure and account for 37.3% of PNG's workforce (1.49 million workers). Coffee cultivation in the Highlands - PNG produces some of the world's most prized specialty coffee, exported primarily to Australia, Germany and Japan - along with cocoa from East New Britain, palm oil in New Britain and Oro Province, and subsistence gardening across the mainland forms the agricultural base. The PNG National Statistics Office (NSO) Labour Force Survey confirms that the majority of rural households grow food primarily for self-consumption. Physical farm labor in PNG's mountainous terrain, tropical lowlands, and island environments is not automatable with current technology.
- Service and sales workers score 3.5/10 at 23.2% of employment (926k workers). Market traders at Port Moresby's Koki Market and Lae's main market, workers at the growing PNG Tourism Promotion Authority portfolio of destinations (Tufi dive resort, Kokoda Track, Goroka Show cultural festival), transport operators, and retail staff across Port Moresby's Waigani commercial district form the core. The PNG LNG project operation and the Porgera gold mine generate significant service employment in camp catering, logistics, and support roles.
- Professionals score 6.5/10 at 9.7% of employment (388k workers). Teachers at the University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG) in Waigani, the PNG University of Technology in Lae, and secondary schools across all provinces represent the largest professional subgroup. Medical doctors and specialist nurses at Port Moresby General Hospital - the national referral hospital - and mining engineers and geologists employed by PNG LNG, Barrick Gold at Porgera, and Ok Tedi Mining also fall in the professional category.
- Clerical support workers score 8.5/10 on AI exposure but represent only 1.8% of employment (72k workers). Concentrated in Port Moresby government ministries, the Bank of Papua New Guinea, BSP (Bank of South Pacific), ANZ PNG, and administrative departments of the major mining and LNG operators. The small absolute count means economy-wide impact is limited, but individual exposure for these workers is the highest in the workforce.
4 million workers, ILO ILOSTAT data from PNG National Statistics Office
Employment data comes from ILO ILOSTAT (CC BY 4.0), based on the Papua New Guinea National Statistics Office (NSO), using ISCO-08 major group classifications. The NSO conducts the PNG Labour Force Survey and the Population Census, which together provide the occupational distribution used in this analysis. Total covered workforce: approximately 4 million workers. GDP per capita stands at $3,019 (World Bank, 2025) - a reflection of the dual economy where extractive industries generate significant national income but formal employment captures only a fraction of the workforce.
Papua New Guinea's economy is dominated by resource extraction that operates largely as an enclave - the PNG LNG project alone represents one of the largest single investments in Pacific history (over $19 billion in capital cost), yet it directly employs relatively few workers compared to its economic output. This extraction-service-subsistence structure is what produces the 4.25/10 average: a large agricultural base at 3.0/10, a large service sector at 3.5/10, and a small but economically significant formal professional and clerical class at 6.5/10 and 8.5/10 respectively.
The 532k elementary workers (13.3% of the workforce) at 2.0/10 include construction labourers on the Connect PNG road-building initiative - one of the largest government spending programmes in PNG history, aiming to build 10,000 km of roads - port workers at Lae port, agricultural helpers on commercial farming operations, and domestic workers in Port Moresby's growing middle-class residential areas in Boroko, Gordons, and the NCD suburbs.
The most AI-exposed jobs in Papua New Guinea
Clerical support workers score 8.5/10 in PNG, covering 72k workers at 1.8% of employment. In Port Moresby, this group includes administrative staff at all national government ministries concentrated on Waigani Drive and Parliament Hill, employees at the Bank of Papua New Guinea (the central bank, responsible for monetary policy and the kina currency), and administrative support across BSP, ANZ, and Westpac PNG branches. The large mining and LNG operators - Barrick Gold, Santos (formerly Oil Search), and ExxonMobil - also maintain substantial administrative functions in Port Moresby. Document processing, records management, and administrative correspondence in these organisations are precisely the functions where AI automation is advancing most rapidly globally.
Professionals at 6.5/10 (388k workers, 9.7%) include educators across the University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG), established in 1965 and offering degrees in law, medicine, humanities, and sciences; the PNG University of Technology (Unitech) in Lae, which focuses on engineering, computing, and science; and the Pacific Adventist University in Boroko. Medical professionals at Port Moresby General Hospital, Angau Memorial Hospital in Lae, and provincial hospitals including Goroka Base Hospital in the Eastern Highlands round out the health professional category. Engineers and technical professionals in the mining sector - geological surveyors, environmental impact specialists, drilling engineers - represent a high-skilled professional subgroup specific to PNG's extractive economy.
Technicians and associate professionals score 5.5/10 (110k workers, 2.8%). Allied health technicians at hospitals across all provinces, laboratory technicians, and engineering associates supporting infrastructure projects form this group. ICT technicians supporting the government's e-government initiatives and private business IT infrastructure in Port Moresby also fall here. The 2.8% technician share is notably low - reflecting PNG's workforce structure where university-educated professionals take on roles that in higher-income countries would be split between professionals and technicians.
| Occupation Group (ISCO-08) | AI Score | Workers | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clerical support workers (4) | 8.5/10 | 72k | 1.8% |
| Professionals (2) | 6.5/10 | 388k | 9.7% |
| Managers (1) | 5.5/10 | 87k | 2.2% |
| Technicians and assoc. professionals (3) | 5.5/10 | 110k | 2.8% |
| Service and sales workers (5) | 3.5/10 | 926k | 23.2% |
| Skilled agricultural workers (6) | 3.0/10 | 1,492k | 37.3% |
| Plant and machine operators (8) | 3.0/10 | 163k | 4.1% |
| Armed forces occupations (0) | 2.5/10 | 8k | 0.2% |
| Craft and related trades workers (7) | 2.5/10 | 221k | 5.5% |
| Elementary occupations (9) | 2.0/10 | 532k | 13.3% |
PNG's 37.3% agricultural share - 1.49 million workers in subsistence farming, specialty coffee, cocoa, and coastal fishing - is the primary reason why a country with a major LNG project and active gold mines has a national AI average of only 4.25/10.
The safest jobs in Papua New Guinea
Elementary occupations score 2.0/10 (532k workers, 13.3%). Construction labourers on the Connect PNG infrastructure programme and on Jacksons International Airport expansion in Port Moresby represent a large part of this group. Agricultural helpers on commercial palm oil and cocoa plantations in New Britain, subsistence garden workers across all provinces, and domestic helpers in Port Moresby's residential areas round out this category. PNG's ongoing infrastructure drive, supported by ADB and World Bank financing, keeps construction labour demand strong.
Craft and related trades workers score 2.5/10 (221k workers, 5.5%). Carpenters and builders constructing homes in the rapidly growing informal settlements surrounding Port Moresby (Three Mile, Six Mile, Eight Mile) as well as formal construction in Waigani's commercial district, electricians and plumbers serving the expanding formal economy, auto mechanics servicing PNG's aging vehicle fleet, and boat builders and repairers in coastal communities all fall in this group. Traditional craft production - bilum bag weaving, wood carving, pottery - while culturally central, represents a smaller formal employment share.
Skilled agricultural workers at 3.0/10 (1.49 million workers, 37.3%) form PNG's biggest occupation group. Coffee growers in the Western Highlands, Southern Highlands, and Simbu provinces - whose coffee trades at specialty premiums on global markets - cocoa farmers in East New Britain, palm oil smallholders in New Britain and Oro Province, and subsistence gardeners growing sweet potato (kaukau), banana, taro, and yam across all provinces form this enormous employment block. For the Pacific regional context, see the Fiji AI jobs analysis and the Solomon Islands AI jobs analysis.
| Occupation Group (ISCO-08) | AI Score | Workers | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elementary occupations (9) | 2.0/10 | 532k | 13.3% |
| Craft and related trades workers (7) | 2.5/10 | 221k | 5.5% |
| Skilled agricultural workers (6) | 3.0/10 | 1,492k | 37.3% |
What this means for Papua New Guinea workers
PNG's 4.25/10 average masks a sharp urban-rural divide. In Port Moresby and Lae - where the formal economy is concentrated - the effective AI exposure average for formal workers is substantially higher than the national figure. Clerical workers in Port Moresby government offices and banks face genuine near-term AI risk as document processing and administrative automation tools become more accessible through affordable cloud services. BSP and ANZ have both piloted digital banking tools in PNG, and the trajectory toward automated back-office functions is clear.
For the 388k professionals - teachers, doctors, mining engineers - the AI augmentation curve is real but gradual. AI diagnostic support tools will enter PNG's health system through WHO and regional adoption programmes rather than direct procurement. Educational AI tools will reach UPNG and Unitech through international faculty partnerships before spreading to secondary schools. The speed of AI adoption in PNG's formal sector will track with connectivity improvements - the Coral Sea Cable System (connecting PNG to Australia) and the PNG DataCo fibre network expansion are the infrastructure preconditions for meaningful AI tool access.
The 1.49 million agricultural workers and 532k elementary workers face negligible near-term AI risk. PNG's geographic diversity - coastal lowlands, highlands at over 4,000 metres, 600 islands - creates physical and logistical barriers to agricultural automation that persist far beyond any technology timeline relevant to the 2026-2031 planning horizon. Workers in Port Moresby's formal sector who invest in digital skills alongside their core professional expertise have the most durable career trajectories in PNG's evolving economy.
See Papua New Guinea's full occupation breakdown
Explore AI exposure, robotics risk, and employment data for all PNG occupation groups - or compare PNG against 205 other countries.
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Methodology
Employment figures are from ILO ILOSTAT (CC BY 4.0), based on the Papua New Guinea National Statistics Office (NSO), using ISCO-08 major group classifications. Covers approximately 4 million formally classified PNG workers. AI exposure scores are research-based estimates per ISCO-08 group, informed by Frey-Osborne (Oxford), OECD, and IMF studies on task-level automation. They reflect the proportion of an occupation's core tasks that current AI can perform or significantly augment - not predictions of job loss rates.
Frequently asked questions
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Related analyses
Data sources
- ILO ILOSTAT - Employment by sex, occupation (ISCO-08), Papua New Guinea (CC BY 4.0)
- World Bank Open Data - Economic indicators (CC BY 4.0)
- Papua New Guinea National Statistics Office (NSO) - Labour Force Survey and Census data
- Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A. (2017). The future of employment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
- IMF - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work (2024)
- OECD - Future of Work and Automation Risk Studies